From the 19th century through the mid-20th century, the dividend yield (dividends/price) and
earnings yield (earnings/price) on stocks generally exceeded the yield on long-term US …

Reasonable expectations for capital markets returns are the foundation on which all
investment programs are built. The model used to develop these critical expectations does …

The accuracy of US stock return forecasts based on the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio
has deteriorated since 1985. The issue is not the CAPE ratio, but CAPE regressions that …

Endowment funds and long-duration personal trust funds are different from other institutional
funds such as pension funds. The primary objective of most endowment funds, and of many …

Editor's Synopsis: The author considers possible answers to the daunting questions of why
most investors, including trustees, prefer income to capital appreciation and investment in …

Equity returns are best considered using a sum-ofparts framework like the one proposed by
Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011), Bogle (1995), and Bogle and Nolan (1991, 2015) and …

Comprehensive survey on contemporary thinking Essential reading for investment
managers Asset allocation has only become a significant component in the investment …

Total return for the stock market can be divided into two components:“fundamental return”
and “speculative return.” We examine how information on managerial performance might be …

This article examines the process behind generating robust medium-term (10 year) forecasts
and tests their use in portfolio construction. The article revisits Bogle's (1991a, b and 1995) …