Does academic research destroy stock return predictability?
We study the out‐of‐sample and post‐publication return predictability of 97 variables shown
to predict cross‐sectional stock returns. Portfolio returns are 26% lower out‐of‐sample and …
to predict cross‐sectional stock returns. Portfolio returns are 26% lower out‐of‐sample and …
Why does the law matter? Investor protection and its effects on investment, finance, and growth
Investor protection is associated with greater investment sensitivity to q and lower investment
sensitivity to cash flow. Finance plays a role in causing these effects; in countries with …
sensitivity to cash flow. Finance plays a role in causing these effects; in countries with …
The business cycle, investor sentiment, and costly external finance
RD McLean, M Zhao - The Journal of Finance, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
The recent financial crisis shows that financial markets can impact the real economy. We
investigate whether access to finance typically time‐varies and, if so, what are the real effects. …
investigate whether access to finance typically time‐varies and, if so, what are the real effects. …
Share issuance and cash savings
RD McLean - Journal of Financial Economics, 2011 - Elsevier
Firms increasingly issue shares for the purpose of cash savings. During the 1970s, $1.00 of
issuance resulted in $0.23 of cash savings; over the most recent decade, $1.00 of issuance …
issuance resulted in $0.23 of cash savings; over the most recent decade, $1.00 of issuance …
Anomalies and news
… We use the 97 anomaly variables studied in McLean and Pontiff (2016), as each of these
variables has been reported to predict the cross-section of stock returns in a published …
variables has been reported to predict the cross-section of stock returns in a published …
Share issuance and cross-sectional returns: International evidence
Share issuance predicts cross-sectional returns in a non-US sample of stocks from 41 different
countries. Issuance predictability has greater statistical significance than either size or …
countries. Issuance predictability has greater statistical significance than either size or …
Idiosyncratic risk, long-term reversal, and momentum
RD McLean - Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2010 - cambridge.org
This paper tests whether the persistence of the momentum and reversal effects is the result
of idiosyncratic risk limiting arbitrage. Idiosyncratic risk deters arbitrage, regardless of the …
of idiosyncratic risk limiting arbitrage. Idiosyncratic risk deters arbitrage, regardless of the …
Costly arbitrage and idiosyncratic risk: Evidence from short sellers
Previous studies have shown that high short interest stocks have low subsequent returns.
We test whether the persistence of this effect is due to costs limiting arbitrage. The arbitrage …
We test whether the persistence of this effect is due to costs limiting arbitrage. The arbitrage …
Analysts and anomalies
Analysts' price targets and recommendations contradict stock return anomaly variables. Using
an index based on 125 anomalies, we find that analysts' annual stock return forecasts are …
an index based on 125 anomalies, we find that analysts' annual stock return forecasts are …
The year-end trading activities of institutional investors: Evidence from daily trades
At year-end, some allege that institutional investors try to mislead investors by placing trades
that inflate performance (portfolio pumping) or distort reported holdings (window dressing). …
that inflate performance (portfolio pumping) or distort reported holdings (window dressing). …