TY - JOUR T1 - Market Timing with <em>Cay</em> JF - The Journal of Portfolio Management SP - 70 LP - 80 DO - 10.3905/jpm.2006.611806 VL - 32 IS - 2 AU - Sandro C. Andrade AU - Ilona Babenko AU - Yuri Tserlukevich Y1 - 2006/01/31 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/32/2/70.abstract N2 - Market timing strategies using deviations from the long-run log consumption-wealth ratio (Cay) are tested to evaluate whether such strategies deliver superior investment performance. Several statistical tests indicate that true Cay embeds economically significant information about future market returns. At the same time, constraints such as the need to use the estimated rather than true ratio and delays in availability of macroeconomic data cast doubt on the likelihood that the market can be timed using mechanistic strategies based on Cay. Further research will ascertain whether it is possible to implement successful timing strategies using such a ratio.TOPICS: Portfolio construction, quantitative methods, performance measurement ER -