TY - JOUR T1 - Rationality of Naive Forecasts of Long-Term Rates JF - The Journal of Portfolio Management SP - 116 LP - 119 DO - 10.3905/jpm.2006.611812 VL - 32 IS - 2 AU - William R Reichenstein Y1 - 2006/01/31 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/32/2/116.abstract N2 - Brooks and Gray in the Fall 2004 JPM examined the accuracy of economists' long-term interest rate forecasts in Wall Street Journal surveys. They concluded that no-change naive forecasts were better than the consensus WSJ forecasts. In fact, no-change forecasts are not naive forecasts but instead rational economic forecasts. We should thus extend the Brooks and Gray conclusions that no-change forecasts are better than economists' consensus forecasts of the long-term Treasury rate to other long-term interest rates.TOPICS: Information providers/credit ratings, interest-rate and currency swaps ER -