RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns JF The Journal of Portfolio Management FD Institutional Investor Journals SP 115 OP 127 DO 10.3905/jpm.2003.319925 VO 30 IS 1 A1 Kenneth L. Fisher A1 Meir Statman YR 2003 UL https://pm-research.com/content/30/1/115.abstract AB Consumer confidence predicts economic activity, but does it also predict stock returns? Do stock returns affect consumer confidence? And what is the relationship between consumer confidence and investor sentiment? Answers to these questions are gained through examination of the consumer confidence measures of the University of Michigan and the Conference Board. Consumer confidence rises with high stock returns, but high consumer confidence is followed by low stock returns. Sentiments of individual investors about the stock market improve with consumer confidence about the economy, as if individuals were unaware that stock prices are a leading indicator of the economy. No relationship is found between changes in the sentiments of institutional investors and consumer confidence, however.