TY - JOUR T1 - History of the Forecasters JF - The Journal of Portfolio Management SP - 113 LP - 117 DO - 10.3905/jpm.2004.443329 VL - 31 IS - 1 AU - Robert Brooks AU - J. Brian Gray Y1 - 2004/10/31 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/31/1/113.abstract N2 - An analysis of semiannual Wall Street Journal long-term interest rate forecasts made since 1982 by a panel of distinguished economic experts shows that the consensus forecast of long-term U.S. Treasury bond yield changes is poor. A naive forecast is more accurate. ER -