PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Robert Brooks
AU  - J. Brian Gray
TI  - History of the Forecasters
AID  - 10.3905/jpm.2004.443329
DP  - 2004 Oct 31
TA  - The Journal of Portfolio Management
PG  - 113--117
VI  - 31
IP  - 1
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/31/1/113.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/31/1/113.full
AB  - An analysis of semiannual Wall Street Journal long-term interest rate forecasts made since 1982 by a panel of distinguished economic experts shows that the consensus forecast of long-term U.S. Treasury bond yield changes is poor. A naive forecast is more accurate.