The Psychology Underlying Biased Forecasts of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the United States

Front Psychol. 2020 Nov 5:11:590594. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.590594. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

This paper discusses the impact of a series of psychological phenomena on the U.S. response to COVID-19, focusing on forecasts of cases and deaths. The specific phenomena comprise unrealistic optimism bias, overconfidence, anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, motivated reasoning, and groupthink.

Keywords: biases; cases; deaths; forecasts; pandemic (COVID-19).

Publication types

  • Review