RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 The Presidential Term
JF The Journal of Portfolio Management
FD Institutional Investor Journals
SP 135
OP 142
DO 10.3905/jpm.2008.701624
VO 34
IS 2
A1 Scott B. Beyer
A1 Gerald R. Jensen
A1 Robert R. Johnson
YR 2008
UL https://pm-research.com/content/34/2/135.abstract
AB Is there a relation between security returns and the year of a U.S. president's term? The answer is yes. There is a prominent pattern in stock returns that relates to the presidential term. Equities have generally prospered in the second half of a president's term, especially during the third year. Further analysis reveals that monetary policy actions correspond with the identified return pattern—Fed policy has generally been significantly more accommodative during the third year of a president's term. The evidence overall strongly suggests that investors should carefully monitor the actions of policymakers and the political calendar before they make investment decisions.TOPICS: Financial crises and financial market history, fixed-income portfolio management, in markets