PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Scott B. Beyer
AU  - Gerald R. Jensen
AU  - Robert R. Johnson
TI  - The Presidential Term
AID  - 10.3905/jpm.2008.701624
DP  - 2008 Jan 31
TA  - The Journal of Portfolio Management
PG  - 135--142
VI  - 34
IP  - 2
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/34/2/135.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/34/2/135.full
AB  - Is there a relation between security returns and the year of a U.S. president's term? The answer is yes. There is a prominent pattern in stock returns that relates to the presidential term. Equities have generally prospered in the second half of a president's term, especially during the third year. Further analysis reveals that monetary policy actions correspond with the identified return pattern—Fed policy has generally been significantly more accommodative during the third year of a president's term. The evidence overall strongly suggests that investors should carefully monitor the actions of policymakers and the political calendar before they make investment decisions.TOPICS: Financial crises and financial market history, fixed-income portfolio management, in markets