PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Charles P. Jones
AU  - Jack W. Wilson
AU  - Leonard L. Lundstrum
TI  - Estimating Stock Returns
AID  - 10.3905/jpm.2002.319862
DP  - 2002 Oct 31
TA  - The Journal of Portfolio Management
PG  - 40--50
VI  - 29
IP  - 1
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/29/1/40.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/29/1/40.full
AB  - How do we quantify the level of return that an investor can expect in the future? An examination of the historical distribution of total returns reveals declines in dividend yields and new likely lower boundaries for price appreciation. It is often asserted that low dividend yields brought about by higher earnings retention should be followed by greater price appreciation as a firm invests retained earnings into new projects. The available recent evidence refutes this assertion. Barring some significant reversal of current conditions, short-term and possibly intermediate-term returns from stocks will be lower than what many investors may be anticipating.