TY - JOUR T1 - Why Do Valuation Ratios Forecast Long-Run Equity Returns? JF - The Journal of Portfolio Management SP - 39 LP - 44 DO - 10.3905/jpm.1999.319714 VL - 25 IS - 3 AU - Thomas K. Philips Y1 - 1999/04/30 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/25/3/39.abstract N2 - A number of studies have documented the relationship between valuation ratios and long-horizon return equities. The author develops a simple analytic expression for the expected return and fair value of an equity market as a function of the economy wide return on equity and one or more valuation ratios. He also shows that the expected return of equities is now about 7%, and provides a simple explanation for why investors have come to believe, incorrectly, that it is 15% or greater. Finally, the author explores the implications of these results for tactical asset allocation. ER -