RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 History of the Forecasters
JF The Journal of Portfolio Management
FD Institutional Investor Journals
SP 113
OP 117
DO 10.3905/jpm.2004.443329
VO 31
IS 1
A1 Robert Brooks
A1 J. Brian Gray
YR 2004
UL https://pm-research.com/content/31/1/113.abstract
AB An analysis of semiannual Wall Street Journal long-term interest rate forecasts made since 1982 by a panel of distinguished economic experts shows that the consensus forecast of long-term U.S. Treasury bond yield changes is poor. A naive forecast is more accurate.